Experimental Forecast of Date of Onset of Monsoon, 2015
The date of onset of monsoon (DOM) with the first sustained, large-scale and significant rainfall over Kerala signifies the arrival of the main agricultural season in India. Thus, accurate and advance prediction of DOM can help agricultural planning like preparation of land and sowing schedule. However, advance dynamical prediction had been traditionally considered unfeasible as DOM involves highly chaotic rainfall variability. Although forecasting of day to day variability of rainfall beyond a few days remains a major challenge, we have shown that large transitions like the onset of monsoon should be predictable. Along with this hypothesis, a dynamical framework with a general circulation model (GCM) optimized over India (variable- resolution GCM) was adopted (Goswami and Gouda, 2010) along with objective criteria and algorithm for identifying the date of onset (Goswami and Gouda, 2010).
C-MMACS began its experimental forecast of Date of Monsoon in 2007. The 8 year performance of dynamical prediction of DOM using C-MMACS model is presented in the following link.
Forecast of date of onset for Monsoon, 2015
An early but weakly sustained onset around May 25; this will be followed by a stronger and sustained onset on June 11, 2015.
Disclaimer: C-MMACS (CSIR-4PI) is not an official forecasting agency. The experimental forecasts are issued strictly for objective post-forecast validation. Forecasts have their inherent uncertainties: CMMACS (CSIR-4PI) shall not be responsible for any loss or negative impact due to use of its forecasts by any agency/individual.